This article describes what Forecasts Markets are, how they work, how to navigate this section, and how events are settled. You will also learn about wallet creation, deposit mechanics, and price formation features.
A forecast market allows trading on the outcomes of specified future events. All transactions and quotes on the platform are displayed in USDC.
Before You Begin
Make sure that:
- You have completed identity verification to at least Basic KYC (Basic tier).
- Your citizenship or residence is in a permitted jurisdiction (see the list of supported countries below).
- You have a sufficient USDC balance to cover your trades.
- You have read and understood the resolution rules for your selected event.
Please note: the Forecast Markets feature is available to citizens or residents of the following countries: Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Croatia, Cuba, El Salvador, Fiji, French Polynesia, Honduras, India, Kazakhstan, Kiribati, Kosovo (Republic), Kyrgyzstan, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Montenegro, Nauru, New Caledonia, Nicaragua, Niue, Norfolk Island, Palau, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Qatar, Samoa, Serbia, Solomon Islands, Tajikistan, Tokelau, Tonga, Tuvalu, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu, Wallis and Futuna, Bahrain, and the British Virgin Islands.
Wallet Creation and Deposits
When you click the "Deposit" button on the main page for the first time, the system automatically creates an individual smart contract (wallet) on the Polygon network. This wallet is non-custodial, meaning the funds are not stored on the exchange's general balances.
When managing this wallet, keep the following rules in mind:
- Supported assets: Deposits must only be made through the exchange interface and strictly in USDC.
- Instant conversion: You can transfer USDC from your Main balance or convert USDT to USDC in one click in the deposit window.
- No external deposits: Do not send funds directly to this Polygon wallet address from external wallets. Direct external deposits are not recommended as they will not be credited to your balance automatically.
Trading Mechanics
Once you have topped up your Forecasts balance, you can choose an active event and buy outcome tokens (such as "Yes" or "No"):
- Order execution: Purchases are executed at market price (Market orders). Because of this, the average entry price may vary depending on available liquidity.
- Early closure: You do not have to wait for the event to end. You can sell your tokens at any time at the current market price or close your position by clicking the "X" icon in the interface.
- Event settlement: Event completion in the smart contract may occur slightly later than its actual conclusion. Once the event is concluded, the position closes automatically and you receive your payout.
Decentralized P2P Model of Forecast Markets
Forecast Markets operate on a decentralized peer-to-peer (P2P) model:
- Trading against other users: You interact directly with other platform participants. If you buy a "Yes" token, another real user buys a "No" token on the opposite side.
- Transparent pricing: The outcome price is formed solely under the influence of supply and demand in the free market.
Market Navigation and Review
You can search for Forecasts Markets using categories ("Cryptocurrency", "Finance", "Economy", etc.), topical tags, the search bar, and filters by volume or time period.
For detailed step-by-step instructions on setting filters, searching, and analyzing market page elements, read our dedicated guide How to Find and Review Forecasts Markets
What a Market Card Contains
Each market card displays the following key parameters:
- Market title — the event or question being traded.
- Outcome and quote — the available choices and their current USDC quotes.
- Chance — the percentage displayed for the leading or selected outcome.
- Volume — the total trading volume of the market denominated in USDC.
- 24h — the price change over the last 24 hours.
- Status — labels such as "Live" or "Closing soon" that identify time-sensitive events.
- More outcomes — a link to the complete event page for multi-outcome cards.
- Save event — a star control used to save a market to your favorites list.
Events with Multiple Outcomes
Some event pages group many related binary markets together. For example, a price-target event can list separate rows for several upward and downward thresholds. Each row has its own chance, volume, 24-hour change, and Yes/No quote. Click "Load more markets" to reveal the remaining thresholds.
Please note: the outcomes grouped on one event page are not necessarily mutually exclusive. Read each row as its own separate market and confirm the exact wording before trading.
What Is Displayed in the Order Panel
Selecting a quote (such as Buy "Yes" or "No", Buy "Up" or "Down") opens the order panel. Review all fields carefully before executing your trade:
- Order side — tabs to switch between "Buy" and "Sell"
- Outcome — the currently selected outcome and its live USDC quote
- Amount — an input field for your trade size in USDC, which includes quick adjustment controls and the "Max" button
- Available — the USDC currently available on your Forecasts balance
- Average price — the estimated average execution price shown by the panel
- Payout — a preview of the potential payout if the selected outcome wins
- Main action — the execution button, which displays "Deposit" if your Forecasts balance is insufficient to cover the trade
- Terms of Use — a note stating that trading is subject to the platform's terms of use
Warning: Market quotes can update between opening the panel and confirming an order. Always recheck the outcome, side, amount, average price, potential payout, and available balance immediately before any final confirmation.
How Markets Are Resolved
There is no universal resolution rule. Every market is settled according to the exact wording in the About this market section and its stated data source. The source can also define asset pair, price type, candle interval, time zone, or calculation method.
Please note: The outcome of an event is determined solely based on the exact wording of the rules and data from the official source.
After resolution, the detail page shows the ended date, the target price to beat, the final price, and the recorded outcome.
Important Risks and Limitations
When participating in Forecast Markets, consider the following risks:
- The displayed chance is a real-time market quote, not a guaranteed probability or investment advice.
- Outcome prices, market availability, volume, and status can change at any moment.
- Event settlement is controlled exclusively by the official source specified in the rules; other external sources do not matter.
- You can lose up to 100% of your invested capital in Forecast Markets positions.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Which currency does the interface use?
All market quotes, trading volumes, order amounts, available balances, average prices, and payout previews are displayed in USDC.
Can I browse markets without trading?
Yes, you can browse categories, apply filters, read market cards, view charts, and check resolution rules without submitting an order.
Does a 75% chance mean the outcome is guaranteed?
No, it is a market-derived quote that fluctuates in real time and does not guarantee that the market will resolve in favor of that outcome.
Why can two similar markets resolve differently?
They may use different sources, trading pairs, time zones, calculation methods, start times, end times, or exceptional-condition rules. Always read the market-specific description.